← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Water AlliesTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1392
· median 1392
· range 1392–1392
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1252
Q3 1404
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
